When the stock market crashes

THE last three to four years have proved to be a roller coaster ride for the stock market.

The Sensex doubled from a level of 3000 on May 3, 2003, to 6000 in January 2004. When the Bharatiya Janata Party lost the elections in May 2004, the market plummeted to 4500 (a 25 per cent drop in just four to five months).

But within six months, the market recovered and again, the Sensex touched 6000 before the end of 2004. Thereafter it was almost a one-way journey right up to May 2006, when the market hit the 12,000 mark.

Later, the market saw a sharp correction when it dipped to 9000 level in June 2006. But pretty soon, it crossed the 21,000 mark by January 2008.

Since then, we have witnessed some pretty sharp falls. And the fact that it doesn’t seem to be bottoming out, is making investors a lot more nervous. Of course, volatility is not something new. But the sharp ups and downs are scaring even the old-timers who are in this business.

Read: Don’t look in the rear view and drive

What next?

First, cut out all the noise and clutter around you and get back to basics. This is because 90 per cent of the people around you are as clueless as you are. So, when you let the facts speak for themselves, you have a better chance of eliminating ambiguities. Let’s find out what these are.

Fact 1: The equity market is NOT a lottery ticket. Every share has a fundamental value and is based on the company’s performance.

Fact 2: It is possible for share prices to be widely different from their intrinsic value.

Fact 3: In the long run, share prices always move towards their true value depending on the profitability and growth potential of the company.

Fact 4: Irrespective of whether the United States goes into recession or the sub-prime problem generates more losses, India’s economic growth rate will still be comparatively high.

Fact 5: Unless we have some serious calamity, a political crisis or poor monetary or fiscal policy, we may continue to see over 7 to 7.5 per cent growth rates over the next 5 to10 years.

Fact 6: If the economy continues to grow at such a healthy rate, it has to reflect in the corporate performance as well. This will lead to appreciation of the share price sooner or later.

Keeping these facts in mind, the long-term outlook for India still remains quite positive.Read: The stock market made this nimbu paani owner rich!

Quick lessons!

1. Do not panic.

2. If you have invested in good companies and mutual funds, stick to these choices.

3. It’s a good time to invest in the market.

4. Be patient and disciplined. You will be rewarded!

Author: Sanjay Matai
Source: Wealth, MoneyControl